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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2018-08-20T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2018-08-20T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/14113/-1
CME Note: The CME is associated with a filament eruption occurring around 2018-08-20T18:00Z at N40W05 in SDO 193.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2018-08-25T06:00Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 7.0
Dst min. in nT: -169
Dst min. time: 2018-08-26T07:00Z

Predicted Arrival Time: 2018-08-26T00:30Z (-14.4h, +15.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 100.0%
Prediction Method: DBM
Prediction Method Note:

Prediction Method: DBM(DBEM)

Prediction Method Note:
Drag-based model in ensemble mode v2 (DBEMv2-ESA/SSA application)
http://swe.ssa.esa.int/heliospheric-weather

Model & CME input parameters:
start time: 2018-08-21 11:30 (+/-30 min)
start distance: 20 Rsun
initial speed: 350 km/s (+/-100)
halfwidth: 30 deg (+/-15)
cmd: 5 deg (+/-15)
solar wind speed: 370 km/s (+/-50)
gamma: 0.3 (+/-0.1)
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probability of arrival: 100%
CME arrival date & time: 2018-08-26 00:30 (+15h, -14.4h)
CME arrival speed: 354 km/s (+44 km/s, -34 km/s)
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Lead Time: 63.97 hour(s)
Difference: -18.50 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Mateja Dumbovic (Hvar Obs) on 2018-08-22T14:02Z

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